Source: Bongaarts, John. 1994. Can the growing human population feed itself? Sci. Am. 266:36-42.

This article presents two opposing views on food production for the growing population. Experts project that the world's population will double from 5.3 billion in 1990 to 10 billion in 2050, but experts disagree about the consequences. One group, often called the environmentalists, say the major reason for "continued world hunger is population's pressure on the fragile ecosystems." The effect of this pressure on land degradation is a major concern. They believe that the situation is a "catastrophe in the making." Environmentalists also question whether the developing world's conversion to high-yielding strains of rice and wheat can occur at reasonable cost. To realize the full benefits from these new crop varieties, farmers would have the added expense of applying large quantities of water and fertilizer. The other group, often called the optimists, argue that further growth in agricultural production can be achieved. Increasing land availability for farming, increasing yields, increasing yearly plantings of current crops, increasing availability for food, and decreasing food prices are reasons cited. Regional soil estimates show that sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America have more unused land than Asia, the Near East, and North America. Both sides agree that the demand for food will increase in the future. Bongaarts believes that the "future is not as grim as pessimists say and not as rosy as optimists claim." The most probable outcome in the future is that dietary intake will gradually increase in most regions and expansion of agriculture will be achieved. Boosting crop yields, using existing farmland more intensively, and bringing as much arable land under cultivation as is economically possible will allow this expansion. He concludes, however, that the challenge of feeding the growing population will only increase if the current policies are not reformed and population growth rates are not reduced.

Abstract author: Alexander Di Bisceglie, 21 November 1995.

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